Queues stretched outside polling stations in Addis Ababa before dawn on Monday as Ethiopia held a general election widely expected to cement Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s grip on power. Although millions voted to fill more than 500 seats in the federal parliament and nine regional assemblies, the poll was stripped of genuine competition: Abiy’s Prosperity Party, which captured over 90 per cent of seats in the 2021 election, faced only a fractured and weakened opposition. Arab news reports highlighted heavy military deployments across the capital, while European commentators dismissed the outcome as a foregone conclusion.

Abiy’s trajectory from reformist to strongman has been swift. Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending two decades of frozen conflict with Eritrea, he has since waged a brutal war in the northern region of Tigray that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and, by many accounts, crossed into atrocities. A crackdown on dissent, the harassment of journalists and the stifling of independent media have become hallmarks of his rule. First-time voter Binyam Gideyelem, 38, queuing in Addis Ababa, told AFP that the country’s future was at stake, but analysts note that the electoral system itself heavily favours the incumbent government.

Entire swathes of the country were unable to participate. The Tigray region, still reeling from the 2020–2022 civil war, was completely excluded from the ballot, while several other areas affected by insurgencies could not hold credible polls. International media, including the BBC, were denied accreditation, underscoring the opacity of the process. Eritrea remains a dangerous wildcard: the prime minister’s Nobel-winning rapprochement has curdled into renewed tension, and border dynamics once again threaten the Horn of Africa.

The vote seems certain to deliver Abiy a fresh five-year mandate, clearing the path for parliament to confirm him as prime minister. Yet the hollowing-out of democratic competition and the exclusion of large populations raise profound questions about the legitimacy of the result. Viewed from Washington and Brussels, the disparity between Abiy’s peace laureate image and his increasingly autocratic methods is eroding Ethiopia’s standing as a Western ally. East African neighbours watch warily, aware that internal frictions in Africa’s second most populous country rarely stay at home.