The United States intelligence community now believes that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains a critical but deliberately obscured figure at the centre of the Islamic Republic’s war strategy, even as he recovers from grievous injuries sustained in the early days of the conflict. Assessments shared among American agencies and described by sources familiar with the material depict a leadership in which formal authority is deeply uncertain, yet the younger Khamenei – who succeeded his father after a strike that killed Ali Khamenei and several senior military commanders – continues to shape both battlefield tactics and the parallel diplomatic track with Washington. The picture that emerges is one of a fractured system in which the nominal head of state is physically isolated, reliant on trusted intermediaries, and deliberately avoiding any electronic communication that might betray his location or state of health.

Viewed from Washington, the assessment underscores the paradox at the heart of Iran’s current governance. Though Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to be participating in the formulation of negotiation strategy and the broader conduct of the war, the precise extent of his authority remains opaque. Sources indicate that he is suffering from severe burns covering one side of his body – his face, arm, torso and leg – along with shrapnel wounds, and has not appeared in public since the attack. His isolation is compounded by a refusal to use any digital devices; all contact is conducted through personal meetings or human couriers. This has created a vacuum in which the Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, are effectively managing day-to-day operations. One source intimately familiar with the intelligence appraisals said there is no evidence that Khamenei is directly involved in decision-making, and that he can be reached only rarely.

Analysts in the region note that this arrangement reflects the deep fractures within the Iranian power structure. While the new Supreme Leader may provide strategic direction, the practical levers of power have shifted to a collective of military and political figures, a reality that complicates any attempt by the Trump administration to secure a diplomatic settlement. The ceasefire currently in place has been extended, but its durability depends on whether the fragmented leadership in Tehran can maintain a unified negotiating position. For now, the United States continues to pursue talks, but the core uncertainty – who really speaks for Iran – remains unresolved, and may persist as long as the wounded leader stays hidden and the Guard retains its grip on the ground.