Iranian negotiators signalled on Sunday that peace talks with Washington were on the verge of collapse, after an Israeli air strike on Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed at least two people and wounded several others. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran’s lead negotiator and parliamentary speaker, declared that the attack showed the United States either lacked the will or the ability to uphold its commitments. “If you do not have the will or the ability to fulfil your commitments, then there is no point in talking about continuing down this path,” he wrote on social media, effectively conditioning any agreement on an immediate halt to Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

The strike came just as U.S. President Donald Trump had been touting a breakthrough. He had suggested a deal could be signed as early as Sunday—his 80th birthday—and that the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, would reopen immediately. But Iranian officials offered a far less concrete timeline, and reports from Tehran indicated that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had not yet approved the text. The disparity in narratives underscores a fundamental gap: Washington appears to view a bilateral accord as a standalone pivot, whereas Tehran insists any settlement must encompass a broader regional ceasefire, particularly in Lebanon.

Viewed from Tehran, the weekend bombing validated long-standing suspicions that the White House is either unwilling or unable to restrain its Israeli ally, thereby making any U.S. security guarantees appear hollow. Analysts in London note that Iran may be using the incident to harden its negotiating position—demanding not just an end to hostilities but also the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon—or to extract further concessions from a White House eager for a foreign policy win. From Washington’s perspective, the Israeli operation, which it publicly described as an act of self-defence against Hezbollah, complicates the president’s self-imposed deadline and exposes the limits of American leverage over the Israeli government.

The immediate fate of the negotiations remains uncertain. Iranian state-affiliated media reported that nothing had been finalised, and Qalibaf’s ultimatum suggests the diplomatic window is closing rapidly. Should talks collapse, the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain a flashpoint, threatening global energy markets, while the risk of a wider conflagration on Israel’s northern border continues to mount. For now, the gap between Trump’s sunny predictions and the grim reality of air strikes over Beirut has left the region’s diplomatic landscape more fractured than ever.