Kataib Hezbollah, one of Iraq’s most powerful Iranian-backed armed factions, has bluntly rejected calls to confine weapons to the authority of the state, even offering to purchase arms that other groups might surrender. The statement, released this week, represents the most direct public defiance yet of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi’s pledge, made upon taking office in mid-May, to assert a government monopoly on the use of force. Viewed from Baghdad, the faction’s posture throws an immediate obstacle into the path of a politically fraught process, as al-Zaydi faces intensifying US pressure to rein in groups Washington designates as terrorist.

The prime minister’s commitment to disarmament comes amid a radically altered regional landscape. Since the outbreak of full-scale war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, followed by direct US-Israeli military strikes against Iran in February, Tehran’s network of allied militias has come under unprecedented strain. Kataib Hezbollah and other groups operating under the umbrella of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have claimed dozens of drone and missile attacks on American bases, prompting US retaliatory strikes that have killed scores of their fighters. Analysts in Washington argue that without decisive Iraqi state control over these arsenals, the country will remain a battlefield for proxy wars. American officials, citing incidents including the killing of three US service members in Jordan in early 2025 – an attack attributed to Kataib Hezbollah – consider the militia a direct threat that must be neutralised.

In a dramatic countermove, the influential Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr announced the dissolution of his own paramilitary force, the Salam Brigades, and their full integration into the official security apparatus. He called on other factions within the Popular Mobilisation Forces to follow suit. The initiative was swiftly welcomed by Prime Minister al-Zaydi’s government, as well as by Sunni and Kurdish political blocs, which have long demanded a state monopoly on arms. From Tehran’s perspective, Sadr’s decision introduces an uncomfortable precedent, as it could fracture the united front of militias that has served Iranian strategic interests. Yet, regional observers note that Sadr’s move is as much a political repositioning as a genuine disarmament gesture, given his history of oscillating between rebellion and institutionalisation.

Despite Sadr’s overture, deep scepticism surrounds the prospect of meaningful disarmament. Kataib Hezbollah’s history of terrorism and hostage-taking – including the 2023 kidnapping of Russian-Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov – alongside its vast arsenal of drones, missiles, and advanced weaponry supplied by Iran, makes any voluntary handover improbable. The group’s leadership, many of whom survived the US drone strike that killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020, remain ideologically committed to “jihadist action” irrespective of state directives. Political sources in Baghdad caution that the current divisions could provoke violent internal clashes or accelerate a reorganisation of loyalties among the armed factions, with unpredictable consequences for Iraq’s already fragile stability.

The unfolding dynamic places al-Zaydi in a precarious bind. While Washington demands rapid and verifiable disarmament to prevent further attacks, any heavy-handed crackdown risks triggering a backlash from entrenched militias that also wield significant political influence. Conversely, a purely cosmetic process would likely prolong US sanctions and limit Baghdad’s access to international financial systems. As London-based analysts note, the coming weeks will test whether al-Zaydi can broker a compromise between the irreconcilable positions of Kataib Hezbollah and Sadr’s faction, or whether his government will be forced to choose between enduring American censure and internal strife.