A fifth round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel opened in Washington on Tuesday, even as a fragile ceasefire brokered through a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was tested by Israeli machine-gun fire that killed two Lebanese civilians in Nabatieh al-Fawqa. The shooting, which Hezbollah denounced as a “blatant violation” and a “treacherous attack”, marked the first fatalities since the truce took hold on Saturday. The Israeli military said its forces had fired warning shots and then struck “armed terrorists” who posed an immediate threat to soldiers operating inside a declared security zone in southern Lebanon. The incident underscored the precariousness of a cessation of hostilities that mediators Pakistan and Qatar had sought to reinforce by announcing, a day earlier, the creation of a “de-confliction cell” that would include the Lebanese government and monitor adherence to the halt in military operations.

In Beirut, President Joseph Aoun insisted that Lebanon “negotiates for ourselves” and would accept no foreign tutelage—an allusion to Iran—while demanding that Israel present a “reasonable” timetable for withdrawing its forces from the south. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu countered that troops would remain “as long as is necessary” and retain full freedom of action to neutralise threats, with the government’s stated aim being the disarming and dismantling of Hezbollah. From Tehran, Iran’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, told journalists that Lebanon was “an unquestionable part of the agreement” and that any violation would affect the entire diplomatic process, calling on Washington to use its leverage to stop Israeli attacks. Hezbollah, for its part, has urged the Lebanese government to abandon the direct track and instead bet on Iran’s negotiations with the United States to secure an Israeli withdrawal.

Lebanese officials, speaking to Reuters, described the US-Iran deal as having “pulled the rug out” from the Lebanese state, leaving it in its weakest position yet and casting doubt on the utility of the Washington talks. A fundamental trust deficit persists: Beirut says it cannot meet Israeli demands, while Israel rejects all of Lebanon’s requests. Analysts in Washington note that the memorandum, while bringing the longest lull in fighting since the war erupted on 2 March, has produced no structural change in the parties’ positions. The de-confliction cell is intended to prevent flare-ups, but its operational details remain unclear, and the shooting in Nabatieh al-Fawqa demonstrated how quickly the calm can shatter.

The current war was triggered when Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in support of Iran, a day after US-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader. Israel’s subsequent air and ground offensive has killed more than 4,100 people in Lebanon and displaced 1.2 million, according to Lebanese authorities. Four previous rounds of Lebanese-Israeli talks since April failed to produce a durable ceasefire. The US-Iran memorandum, signed last week, mandated a halt to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, and technical talks in Switzerland have now proposed four working groups covering sanctions, nuclear affairs, reconstruction, and monitoring. The Lebanese-Israeli negotiations are scheduled to last three days, with Beirut seeking a withdrawal timeline and Israel pressing for Hezbollah’s disarmament. The dossier remains highly volatile, with the ceasefire under immediate strain and the de-confliction cell yet to be operationalised.