Israeli security officials assess that US President Donald Trump is closer than ever to ordering a large-scale military strike on Iran, with the situation described as being “on the verge of explosion.” Quoted by Israel’s Channel 12 and Channel 13, a senior Israeli official said the president views ongoing negotiations as “a waste of time” and is “angry, furious and frustrated.” The same sources indicate that while Trump has not yet decided on the scope of the attack or whether Israel would participate in an initial phase, the question is no longer “if” but “when.”

According to the Israeli official, the scenario presented to the White House envisages a targeted and limited strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Such an operation, the assessment holds, could destabilise the regime without triggering a global energy crisis, as it would focus on specific facilities with a significant psychological and social impact. The Israeli military has raised its alert level to the maximum, and security agencies are preparing for two possibilities: that Iran seizes the initiative and attacks Israel, or that Trump gives Israel a green light to join the offensive. The US has informed Israel that it will send dozens of additional refuelling aircraft to the country.

Viewed from Tehran, the warnings are unequivocal. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a phone call with his Saudi counterpart, said any “aggression” by the United States and Israel would be met with a “decisive and proportionate response.” The commander of Iran’s central operations headquarters, Ali Abdollahi, accused Washington of rapidly escalating tensions and warned that any country acting as a “defensive shield for criminal and aggressor America” would be engulfed by the fire of war. An adviser to the Supreme Leader separately cautioned against attacking Iranian infrastructure, writing that such a move would awaken “fault lines” built into the regional order.

In a parallel move, US embassies in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates issued security alerts on Saturday. The notices warned of “unexpected escalation” and advised American citizens to exercise extreme caution, prepare for possible flight cancellations and intermittent airspace closures, and consider departing the region. The embassy in Jerusalem specifically noted that the Iranian regime’s actions “cannot be predicted,” citing recent attacks on areas without prior warning, including Egypt. The current spike follows a resumption of hostilities on 7 July, after a ceasefire and a memorandum of understanding signed in June had paused a war that began with a US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February. Intensive talks between US and Israeli sides have been held over the past two days, but a final decision from the White House remains pending.