The Gazprom Neft-operated Moscow oil refinery, which supplies roughly 40 percent of the capital region’s fuel, is expected to remain out of operation for at least half a year following two Ukrainian drone strikes in mid-June, industry sources told Reuters. Satellite imagery confirmed damage to both the primary distillation unit and the newer Euro+ combined processing unit, effectively halting all production at the 11.6-million-tonne-per-year facility. The outage has already contributed to a 25 percent year-on-year drop in national gasoline output for the week ending 21 June, according to Reuters data, and average pump prices have risen 6.6 percent since January, reaching 69.11 roubles per litre by mid-month.

Russian officials have publicly described the fuel situation as “challenging but under control.” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, speaking during a video conference with President Vladimir Putin, attributed localised shortages to “periodic logistical problems” and confirmed that the government is now considering a total ban on diesel exports, alongside existing restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel. Behind the scenes, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin sent a letter to Putin in May proposing emergency measures: compelling all oil companies to route at least 30 percent of crude to domestic refineries, suspending exchange-trading rules that he claims enable hoarding by intermediaries, and prioritising direct deliveries to state contracts and company-owned filling stations. The State Duma is also fast-tracking legislation to subsidise gasoline imports from India, the RBC news outlet reported.

Viewed from Kyiv, the strikes on refineries are part of a deliberate campaign to curtail Moscow’s revenue base and complicate logistics for its armed forces. Ukrainian officials have not commented on the specific Moscow refinery attack, but military spokespeople have previously stated that long-range drone operations target infrastructure that fuels Russia’s war effort. In parallel, Western governments are recalibrating their diplomatic stance. At the recent G7 summit in France, European leaders sought to persuade US President Donald Trump that the battlefield momentum is shifting in Ukraine’s favour, arguing that earlier Washington peace proposals were, in the view of several European delegations, too accommodating toward Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Kremlin is waiting for Washington to clarify its position after the summit, ahead of a planned Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska later this summer.

Fuel rationing has now spread to more than twenty Russian regions, with the occupied Crimean peninsula suspending all retail fuel sales to private individuals and reserving supplies for essential state services. The Russian energy ministry has for the first time publicly linked the “difficulties” in the domestic fuel market directly to Ukrainian drone strikes, while establishing an industry-wide task force with major corporations. The government is simultaneously examining the option of seaborne fuel imports from Asia. The Duma vote on import subsidies is expected as early as this week, and a decision on the diesel export ban is anticipated shortly, as Moscow confronts the most visible domestic economic strain from the drone campaign to date.