US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has declared that a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon is “imminently achievable”, but insisted that any such deal hinges on the Lebanese state’s ability to confront and dismantle Hezbollah. Speaking at the White House on Tuesday, Rubio framed the Iran-backed militia as the sole obstacle to normalisation, arguing that “the problem with Israel and Lebanon is not Israel or Lebanon, it's Hezbollah”. He also stressed that Israel does not claim Lebanese territory, characterising its current military operations as a response to decades of attacks from the group. His remarks represent the clearest American endorsement yet of a formal peace arrangement, although he acknowledged that the process “will not be easy” and requires Beirut to acquire the capacity to challenge Hezbollah.

Viewed from Washington, the administration’s strategy rests on strengthening Lebanese state institutions so they can assume full sovereignty. Rubio explicitly linked this to the need for a government “able to go after Hezbollah and take Hezbollah apart”, and revealed ongoing US efforts to build the capacity of the Lebanese armed forces and political structures. Yet from Beirut’s perspective, the calculus is far more delicate. Lebanon’s government has signalled a desire for a permanent end to Israeli strikes but has stopped short of calling for a peace treaty, wary of the domestic backlash that any explicit alignment with Israel would provoke.

In Tel Aviv, officials have made clear that any deal must include the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, a condition that the group’s leadership has repeatedly rejected. The current escalation adds further urgency: Israel intensified its air campaign after Hezbollah launched rockets on 2 March, three days into the American-Israeli military operation against Iran. The ground incursion into southern Lebanon has since expanded, and the Lebanese health ministry reports more than 2,702 killed in Israeli attacks since the conflict resumed.

Analysts in London note that Rubio’s optimism, while diplomatically significant, may overestimate the viability of a rapid transformation. Hezbollah remains deeply embedded in Lebanon’s political and security landscape, and no government in Beirut has yet demonstrated either the will or the capacity to confront it directly. The coming weeks will test whether Washington’s insistence on a new security architecture can overcome the entrenched realities on the ground, or whether the cycle of violence will continue to make peace a distant prospect.