The United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, will arrive in Rome this week for a two-day diplomatic mission aimed at repairing relations with the Vatican and the Italian government after a series of public attacks by President Donald Trump. Rubio, a Catholic who has met Pope Leo XIV before, is expected to hold talks with the Pontiff on Thursday, followed by meetings with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s top diplomat, and with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and Defence Minister Guido Crosetto. A possible encounter with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni remains unconfirmed but is considered likely. The visit, timed just days before the first anniversary of Pope Leo’s election, represents the most concrete attempt yet to steady transatlantic ties that have frayed badly in recent weeks.

Viewed from Rome, the mission is understood as a calculated thaw after Trump lashed out at Meloni for refusing to back the US-led military campaign against Iran and branded Pope Leo “weak” and “clueless” on foreign policy. The Vatican, in turn, has grown more outspoken under the new Pope, criticising the war and Trump’s immigration policies with a bluntness that has drawn admiration from some quarters and fury from the White House. Analysts in London note that the trip also comes against the backdrop of the Pentagon’s announcement of a 5,000-strong troop reduction in Germany, the largest American base presence in Europe, and deepening trade disputes over tariffs — moves that have unsettled European capitals and raised questions about Washington’s commitment to NATO allies.

The Holy See’s decision to receive Rubio so soon after the President’s personal insults is itself a signal of pragmatism. The Pope’s rapid emergence as a forceful moral voice on issues such as the Iran conflict and migration has made him a difficult figure for the Trump administration, but both sides appear to recognise the cost of a complete rupture. Rubio’s own Catholic faith and his previous encounter with Pope Leo at last year’s inauguration give him a degree of personal credibility in the Apostolic Palace that his boss lacks. Cardinal Parolin will almost certainly use the meeting to press for restraint in US policy towards Iran and to defend the Vatican’s stance on humanitarian migration.

Looking ahead, the Rome visit is unlikely to resolve the fundamental disagreements that separate Washington from its European and Catholic interlocutors. Trump’s tariff war and troop redeployments are driven by a transactional worldview that no single diplomatic mission can reverse. Yet the decision to dispatch the Secretary of State — rather than simply doubling down on the insults — suggests that the White House, at least for now, sees diplomatic damage control as preferable to isolation. For Meloni and Pope Leo, the Rubio visit offers an opportunity to test the limits of the administration’s flexibility while reinforcing their own positions. The real test will come in the weeks after, when the broader pattern of US-European tension will either ease or harden.