President Donald Trump has signalled he is likely to reject Iran’s latest peace proposal, a 14-point plan delivered through Pakistani intermediaries, while simultaneously warning that American air strikes could resume if Tehran “misbehaves”. The president told reporters in Florida that he had been briefed on the “concept” of the deal but would wait for the precise wording before passing judgment. Within hours, however, he posted on Truth Social that he could not imagine the plan would be acceptable because Iran had “not yet paid a big enough price” for its actions over the past 47 years. The remarks appeared designed to maintain maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic while leaving the door ajar for a diplomatic outcome that Washington would frame as a capitulation.

The Iranian proposal, first reported by the semi-official Tasnim and Fars news agencies, rejects the two-month ceasefire sought by the United States in favour of a 30-day deadline to resolve all outstanding issues. Tehran’s conditions include guarantees of non-aggression, the withdrawal of American forces from the region, an end to the naval blockade, the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets, the lifting of sanctions, and a new mechanism for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Nuclear talks, a central American demand, would be deferred until after a broader cessation of hostilities. Senior Iranian officials have described the offer as a “multi-layered” framework aimed at ending the war permanently rather than merely extending a truce that has been in place since 8 April.

From Tehran’s perspective, the diplomatic gambit comes with a clear military warning. General Mohammad Jafar Asadi, a senior figure in Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, told Fars that renewed fighting with the United States was “likely” and that the armed forces were fully prepared. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps later issued a statement asserting that Trump now faced a choice between “an impossible military operation or a bad deal”. These threats are not merely rhetorical: Iran has already begun drafting legislation to divert 30 per cent of Strait of Hormuz toll revenues to military infrastructure, and its naval forces continue to challenge the American blockade. Meanwhile, on the Lebanon front, Israeli air strikes killed at least seven people in southern Lebanon on Saturday, and Hezbollah launched rockets at Israeli positions, underscoring how the wider conflict remains dangerously unresolved.

Viewed from European capitals, the impasse has deepened anxiety over energy security and regional stability. Brent crude prices have remained volatile, and the European Commission has warned that the escalation could persist for months if not years. Analysts in London note that the gap between Washington’s maximalist rhetoric and Tehran’s maximalist demands leaves little room for compromise, particularly on the nuclear file. The involvement of Pakistan as a mediator, while tactically useful, has not yet produced any tangible progress since the single round of talks held in Islamabad on 11 April. Trump’s reference to the “47 years” since Iran’s Islamic Revolution suggests a long-term grievance agenda that may be incompatible with the transactional diplomacy he has elsewhere championed.

Looking ahead, the most likely near-term scenario is a prolonged stalemate punctuated by periodic military exchanges. The IRGC’s assertion that Washington’s options have narrowed reflects a calculation that the United States cannot sustain a full-scale invasion but also cannot accept a deal that legitimises Iran’s regional influence. Trump’s own comments about wanting to “eliminate” Iran’s missile-production capability indicate that he views any pause as a temporary lull, not a permanent settlement. For Tehran, the challenge is to exploit fractures in the American coalition while maintaining enough economic pressure to force concessions on sanctions and shipping. The next few weeks will test whether either side is willing to shift from brinksmanship to genuine negotiation—or whether the Strait of Hormuz becomes the battleground for a wider conflagration.