As the expanded 48-team World Cup kicks off on Thursday across the United States, Mexico and Canada, a clear consensus has emerged from betting markets and artificial intelligence models: Spain are the team to beat. On the Polymarket platform, La Roja attracted 17 per cent of the total wagered, slightly ahead of France on 16 per cent. An AI-based analysis circulated by Argentine newswires assigned Spain an 18.5 per cent probability of lifting the trophy, praising their fusion of extreme youth on the flanks through Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams with an ultra-dominant midfield. Viewed from European capitals, this supremacy is no surprise — it crowns a cycle in which Spain’s cohesive, high-pressing style has redefined international football.

That European dominance extends well beyond the Spaniards. England and Portugal each hold 11 per cent of the Polymarket stake, while Germany (5 per cent), the Netherlands (4 per cent), Norway (2 per cent) and Belgium (2 per cent) complete a top ten that is overwhelmingly from the continent. Italian observers note a historic inversion: the ‘old Europe’ is now poised to conquer the New World, a sharp contrast to previous eras when South American flair dictated the odds. France, the 2018 champions and 2022 finalists, remain a formidable second favourite, blending Mbappé’s brilliance with Didier Deschamps’ rugged pragmatism.

From Buenos Aires, however, the forecasts register a faint note of indignation. Sources there highlight the “curious position” of Argentina, who despite arriving as reigning champions sit only fifth in the betting at 9 per cent, behind four European sides. The AI model, too, relegated Lionel Scaloni’s men to a similar standing, implicitly questioning whether the ageing core that triumphed in Qatar can sustain another charge. Brazil, under Carlo Ancelotti, share the same 9 per cent but are pushed to sixth on tie-breaks, with Neymar’s persistent injury clouds adding to the uncertainty. For a continent accustomed to dominating these tournaments, the numbers signal a shifting balance of power.

Tactical and generational trends underpin the forecasts. The modern European game, built on relentless pressing and rapid transitions, appears to have superseded the slower, individualistic approaches that once defined South American football. Spain’s success in marrying possession with verticality has become the blueprint, while England and France boast depth in every position. Yet World Cups rarely follow scripts: Argentina’s know-how under pressure and Brazil’s sheer talent pool could easily defy the algorithms. As the first whistles sound in this sprawling North American edition, the data offers a map, but the real journey remains unwritten.