President Donald Trump has cast grave doubt on Iran’s latest 14-point peace proposal even as he ordered the US Navy to begin escorting stranded merchant vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz in a venture he calls “Project Freedom”. Speaking from Florida on Saturday, the president said he could not “imagine that it would be acceptable” because Tehran had “not yet paid a big enough price” over 47 years. Within hours, however, his tone shifted markedly: he described diplomatic contacts with Iran as “very positive” and confirmed that a written US response to the Iranian plan had already been delivered through Pakistani intermediaries. The dual-track approach – military brinkmanship alongside open channels – encapsulates the dangerously ambivalent state of the conflict as a fragile three-week ceasefire holds without any agreement on its extension or replacement.

Iran’s submission, delivered via Islamabad in response to an earlier nine-point American framework, demands a permanent end to hostilities within 30 days, the lifting of the naval blockade, the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets, and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Nuclear negotiations, the stated casus belli for Washington’s February offensive, are explicitly deferred to a later stage. From Tehran’s perspective, the proposal is a serious offer: the deputy foreign minister declared that “the ball is in the United States’ court”, while the intelligence arm of the Revolutionary Guards warned that Trump now faced a choice between “an impossible military operation and a bad deal”. Iranian officials have also warned that any American interference in Hormuz – beyond the humanitarian escort – would be treated as a ceasefire violation.

Viewed from the Gulf, the blockade has already reshaped energy markets. Iraq is urgently rerouting fuel exports overland to Syria, and a bulk carrier was reported attacked by small craft east of the Strait on Sunday, the first such incident in over a week. The US Central Command, mobilising 15,000 troops, more than 100 aircraft and destroyers for “Project Freedom”, insists the naval blockade will remain in force. Analysts in London note that the operation risks a direct confrontation if Iranian patrols challenge the escorts, while the humanitarian framing offers Trump a political exit if diplomacy fails.

What comes next hinges on whether Washington can reconcile its maximalist demand for nuclear dismantlement with Tehran’s insistence on sequencing. The window for decision is narrowing: Iran’s parliament has drafted legislation to divert 30 per cent of any future Hormuz toll revenue to military infrastructure, and the IRGC has set an undisclosed deadline for the blockade to be lifted. With Israeli strikes continuing in southern Lebanon and a German pledge to maintain dialogue despite Trump’s troop withdrawals, the region waits to see whether “Project Freedom” becomes a prelude to escalation or the scaffolding for an imperfect peace.