The first face-to-face meeting in sixteen months between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi produced a significant thaw in relations on Wednesday, as the two leaders signalled that a bilateral trade deal was within reach and Trump offered a striking—if conditional—security guarantee. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, Trump declared that the two sides were “very close to the deal,” with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer due in New Delhi the following week for final-stage negotiations. The encounter, their first since Operation Sindoor in May 2025, was framed by both sides as an effort to reset a relationship strained by punitive tariffs and Trump’s earlier characterisation of India as a “hellhole” and a “dead economy.”

Viewed from Washington, the meeting showcased Trump’s characteristic blend of personal diplomacy and transactional brinkmanship. He described Modi as a “tough negotiator,” a “total killer” in trade talks, and a leader whose calm exterior belied formidable bargaining skills. Yet the most consequential remark was a defence pledge: “If India is attacked and Modi is leader, we will help,” Trump said, adding that he was less certain about a successor. This conditional commitment, tying US security assistance to the person of the prime minister rather than to the state, drew immediate scrutiny from analysts in London and other European capitals, who noted it introduced an unusual element of political contingency into alliance guarantees.

From New Delhi’s perspective, the summit was an opportunity to advance long-pending trade concessions while addressing urgent maritime security concerns. Modi pressed Trump on the safety of Indian seafarers after three nationals were killed in a US strike on a commercial vessel near Oman the previous week. Trump expressed regret, calling seafaring a “rough profession,” but offered no concrete assurances beyond stating that countries were working together. Modi, for his part, stressed that freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was vital for the global economy and urged that the implementation of any US-Iran deal must safeguard the hundreds of thousands of Indian sailors serving on the world’s oceans.

The broader diplomatic choreography in Évian-les-Bains also underscored India’s deepening engagement with other G7 partners. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU and India aimed to sign what she termed the “mother of all trade deals” by year-end, while Modi held separate talks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on trade, defence, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These parallel discussions, observed by French and Japanese officials, reinforced the sense that India was leveraging the summit to diversify its strategic and economic partnerships even as it sought to stabilise ties with Washington.

Looking ahead, the Greer visit will test whether the bonhomie on display can be translated into a legally binding trade agreement that satisfies both sides’ red lines—particularly on agricultural market access and intellectual property. The defence pledge, meanwhile, will be parsed carefully in strategic circles: it reassures India against external threats but simultaneously introduces a vulnerability should domestic politics in either country shift. As Trump himself noted, India will have “a great friend in the White House” for as long as he remains president, a formulation that captures both the warmth of the moment and its inherent impermanence.