Israeli and Lebanese envoys will sit down for a third round of direct negotiations in Washington next week, even as Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in southern Beirut continue to strain the fragile truce that took effect on April 8. The two-day meeting, confirmed by a State Department official, is scheduled for May 14 and 15 and will focus first on consolidating the ceasefire before moving to questions of Israeli withdrawal, the return of displaced persons, and prisoner exchanges. But the diplomatic calendar is shadowed by a far wider confrontation: the United States is still awaiting Tehran’s response to its latest proposal for a long-term settlement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the broader US-Israeli campaign against Iran.

Viewed from Washington, the talks represent an effort to isolate the Lebanon track from the escalating US-Iran firefight. President Donald Trump warned on Thursday that Iran would face “much more violence” if it did not accept the deal “fast”, after Tehran reportedly struck three American vessels in the strait and the US retaliated with fresh air raids on Iranian military targets. The risk for Lebanon is that any renewed US-Iran hostilities could instantly shatter the already shaky ceasefire that had paused the Israel-Hezbollah front. Analysts in Beirut note that the Lebanese presidency, under Joseph Aoun, is working intensively to secure a de-escalation of Israeli strikes before next week’s meetings, insisting that Beyrouth will not negotiate “under fire”. The demand reflects a broader unease: Lebanese political factions remain divided over whether these talks are a genuine path to peace or a stage-managed step toward normalisation under duress.

From Tehran’s perspective, the negotiations are a secondary theatre. The Iranian leadership has yet to formally respond to the American proposal, and its calculations are likely influenced by the pace of violence around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments. Analysts in London point out that any US-Iran agreement would inevitably lower temperatures in Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s military posture is tied directly to the strategic relationship with Tehran. Yet the opposite is also true: if the US-Iran standoff escalates further, the Lebanon truce will be among the first casualties.

The coming week will test whether American diplomacy can sustain parallel tracks that are becoming inextricably linked. The State Department’s hope is that progress on the Israel-Lebanon front will create a buffer, giving Tehran space to consider its options without the pressure of an expanding war. But the truce in Lebanon remains a breathless pause, not a settlement, and without a comprehensive US-Iran deal its longevity is measured in weeks, not months.