Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose 1.1 percent in 2025 to 35,806 million tonnes, with the United States alone responsible for more than a third of the increase, according to the Energy Institute’s annual statistical review. The finding marks a sharp reversal: North America had been cutting emissions by an average of 0.7 percent a year over the previous decade. A 10 percent jump in US coal consumption, triggered by higher natural gas prices that made coal more competitive for power generation, drove the turnaround.

All major energy sources expanded in 2025. Renewable power generation climbed 9.1 percent, led by a 30 percent surge in solar, yet fossil fuels continued to dominate the global mix. Total energy supply grew 1.7 percent, with electricity demand rising 3 percent—faster than supply—fuelled by electric vehicles, data centres and artificial intelligence. Global oil consumption increased 1.3 percent to 103 million barrels per day, while production rose 3.5 percent. China’s gasoline and diesel use declined for a second year, but its overall energy emissions still edged up 0.7 percent.

Viewed from Beijing, the numbers reflect a deliberate dual strategy. China’s latest five-year plan targets half of electricity from non-fossil sources by 2030, up from a 42.3 percent goal for 2025, and installed wind and solar capacity is set to exceed 2,700 gigawatts. At the same time, coal production remains near record levels—4.82 billion tonnes in 2025—and is increasingly diverted to chemical and liquid fuel manufacturing, a sector that already accounts for an estimated 5 to 7 percent of China’s emissions. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the February attacks on Iran has reinforced this approach: Chinese crude imports in May plunged to an eight-year low of 7.79 million barrels per day, accelerating the shift toward coal-based feedstocks and transport electrification. European emissions rose 0.5 percent, with the continent and India relying on imports for nearly half their gas supply.

A co-author of the Energy Institute report described the rapid solar expansion as heralding a structural shift from a system where clean energy merely complements fossil fuels to one where it increasingly replaces them. Yet for now, the world remains in a phase of energy accumulation, with renewables adding to rather than displacing hydrocarbons. The next factual milestone will be the 2026 edition of the statistical review, which will reveal whether the US coal rebound was a one-year anomaly or the start of a new trajectory, and whether China’s crude oil imports have definitively peaked.