The two-week ceasefire declared by President Donald Trump expired at dawn on Wednesday, ending a fragile pause in hostilities just as Washington imposed its second tranche of sanctions on Iranian-linked entities in a single week. The Treasury Department blacklisted four companies, two Boeing 777s operated by Mahan Air, and eight individuals based in Iran, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, accusing them of facilitating the procurement or transfer of weapons and components on behalf of the Islamic Republic. The timing is deliberate: viewed from Washington, the administration is maintaining maximum economic pressure even as it signals openness to a second round of talks that Trump suggested could begin as early as Friday.

Yet the sanctions picture is not one-dimensional. In a parallel move, the Treasury extended a 30-day waiver allowing Iran to continue selling oil stored on floating vessels, a concession that Secretary of the Treasury dismissed as an “myth” the notion that Tehran had reaped $14 billion in profits from previous sanctions relief. Analysts in London note that this dual approach — tightening the net around military procurement while leaving a narrow channel for oil revenue — reflects a calibrated strategy to keep Iran at the negotiating table without conceding the leverage that crippling restrictions provide. The standoff centres on two interlinked objectives: keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to global shipping and ending what the Trump administration frames as a joint US-Israeli military campaign inside Iran.

From Tehran’s perspective, the mixed signals are familiar. The ceasefire’s expiry removes a temporary buffer against further escalation, but the prospect of renewed talks offers a diplomatic off-ramp that the Iranian leadership has not publicly rejected. The new sanctions, however, target precisely the networks that keep Iran’s military supply chains running, hitting operatives in Turkey and the UAE — key transit hubs for dual-use goods. Regional observers in the Gulf warn that the interplay of sanctions, waivers, and intermittent diplomacy creates an unpredictable environment, where any miscalculation could shatter the fragile momentum toward a broader understanding. With the second round of negotiations potentially days away, the question is whether the Trump administration can sustain this balancing act without forcing a rupture that neither side appears ready to risk.