The Russian government has extended and increased its export quotas for mineral fertilisers, setting a total cap of 20 million tonnes for shipments outside the Eurasian Economic Union between 1 June and 30 November 2026. The decision, announced late last week, marks a modest rise from the previous 18.7 million tonne limit and reflects Moscow’s continued efforts to balance the interests of domestic agriculture with the demands of global markets. Viewed from the Kremlin, the measure is framed as essential to ensuring uninterrupted supplies for Russian farmers and livestock feed producers, while still allowing the country to remain a major player in the international fertiliser trade.

The quotas were first introduced in December 2021 as an emergency response to soaring global food prices, a crisis exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. They have been renewed repeatedly since, each time with minor adjustments. The latest iteration carves the 20 million tonne ceiling into three tranches: more than 8.7 million tonnes for nitrogen fertilisers, over 7 million tonnes for complex fertilisers, and 4.2 million tonnes specifically for ammonium nitrate. The last category is notable because exports of ammonium nitrate were temporarily suspended for a month in spring 2026, a step that analysts in London interpreted as a short-term pressure valve to calm domestic price spikes before the main summer season.

Exemptions remain in place for shipments to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, for international transit traffic, and for humanitarian aid deliveries — a carve-out that underscores Moscow’s geopolitical calculus in the Caucasus. From the perspective of global grain markets, the increase in the overall quota, while modest, signals that Russia intends to maintain its position as a leading supplier of fertilisers to the developing world. This is particularly relevant for countries in Africa and South Asia, which depend heavily on Russian nitrogen-based products and have faced acute shortages since 2022.

Yet the extension also carries a warning. By keeping a tight cap on exports — especially for ammonium nitrate — the government is signalling that domestic food security remains its overriding priority. Fertiliser producers, who have chafed under the restrictions for nearly five years, face continued uncertainty over access to foreign markets. Looking ahead, the quota system is likely to persist as long as the war in Ukraine keeps global agricultural markets volatile and Russian inflation pressures remain. For European and American buyers, the message is clear: Moscow will continue to use its fertiliser leverage as a policy tool, calibrating the taps to suit its own needs rather than the rhythms of international trade.