A carefully choreographed political opening unfolded in Caracas on Thursday as Dinorah Figuera, an opposition former deputy who spent eight years in exile, returned to Venezuela and held direct talks with Jorge Rodríguez, the powerful president of the chavista-controlled National Assembly. The meeting, confirmed by the US State Department, was described as a “first step” towards a negotiated democratic transition and produced a joint commitment to establish a parity commission with a concrete timeline for institutional reform. It marks the first public contact between the government and the opposition in nearly three years, since the collapse of the Barbados agreements that had briefly raised hopes for a credible presidential election in 2024.

Viewed from Washington, the encounter is the fruit of months of quiet diplomacy. Figuera, a 65-year-old physician and member of the centrist Primero Justicia party, was invited by the State Department and travelled from the United States; upon landing at Maiquetía airport she was transported in vehicles of the American embassy and met first with the US chargé d’affaires, John Barrett, before proceeding to the legislature. The State Department spokesman, Tommy Pigott, said the agenda would include “reconstruction of democratic institutions, strengthening of the National Electoral Council, re-establishment of durable guarantees for political participation, and ensuring civil liberties”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had signalled earlier this month that a new electoral authority was a prerequisite for any vote with guarantees.

In Caracas, the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez — who assumed the presidency after US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January — is under intense pressure to demonstrate flexibility. Jorge Rodríguez, her brother and the legislature’s chief, received Figuera in her capacity as representative of the 2015-2020 opposition deputies, a symbolic parallel parliament that Washington still recognises as the last legitimately elected body. Figuera herself was named president of that expired assembly in 2023, a move the Maduro-era prosecutor’s office branded usurpation and treason. Her return, and the government’s willingness to engage, suggests a pragmatic calculation on both sides: the Rodríguez administration needs sanctions relief and international legitimacy, while the US seeks a managed transition that avoids the unpredictable mobilisation associated with the more radical opposition leader María Corina Machado, from whom Figuera pointedly distanced herself.

European and Latin American analysts caution that the path ahead is strewn with obstacles. The parity commission’s mandate to address the appointment of Supreme Court magistrates and the renewal of the electoral council touches the core of chavismo’s institutional control. Previous attempts at negotiated exits — secret talks in 2023 over a possible Maduro resignation in exchange for dropped narcoterrorism charges, and a later offer of a delayed departure rejected by the White House — all foundered on mutual mistrust. The exclusion of Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who commands significant popular support and has launched her own “Panama manifesto” for transition talks, risks fracturing the opposition further. Whether this US-brokered channel can deliver a stable, orderly transition or merely becomes another tactical pause in Venezuela’s protracted crisis will depend on the concrete milestones the new commission can achieve in the coming weeks.