Five weeks before the 2026 World Cup is due to kick off across the United States, the hotel industry is delivering a sobering reality check to FIFA’s grand economic projections. The American Hotel and Lodging Association has released a survey showing that at least 80 percent of hoteliers in the eleven metropolitan areas hosting matches describe current reservation levels as below initial expectations. A quarter of respondents report any meaningful uptick in demand; some have gone so far as to characterise the tournament as a “non-event” for the sector.

Viewed from Washington, these figures puncture the narrative of an automatic financial windfall that FIFA has promoted since awarding the tournament to the United States, Canada and Mexico. The federation itself has described the event as a major economic stimulus for the host nation, but the anecdotal evidence from the ground suggests a more cautious reality. Industry insiders hope a wave of last-minute bookings may yet salvage the summer, particularly if a surprise team draws late interest from travelling supporters.

That optimism, however, must contend with structural headwinds that are far from trivial. More than 65 percent of hotels surveyed cited visa processing delays and geopolitical concerns as significant drags on international demand. Analysts in London note that the tightening of United States entry policies over the past two years — combined with a broader climate of trade tensions and diplomatic friction — has made long-haul travel planning unpredictable.

For would-be visitors from regions such as the Middle East and parts of Asia, the combination of bureaucratic hurdles and a sense of an unwelcoming environment has cooled enthusiasm. Tehran-based outlets have been particularly vocal, reporting that even members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard face de facto visa obstacles, a reminder that the tournament is unfolding against a backdrop of heightened bilateral animosity. The hotel data exposes a gap between FIFA’s promotional machinery and the operational reality of a sprawling multi-city event.

While the World Cup is certain to draw passionate crowds and generate substantial revenue overall, the question now is whether the distribution of that spending will match the rosy forecasts. Looking ahead, the decisive variable may be the performance of teams from countries with large diaspora communities in the United States — Mexico, for instance, or a surprise African qualifier. If those squads advance deep into the tournament, hoteliers could yet see the surge they have been banking on.

For now, though, the industry is watching the clock and counting empty rooms.