Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is intensifying efforts to drag Belarus deeper into its war against Ukraine, presenting intelligence suggesting that Moscow is preparing to use its ally’s territory for operations targeting either northern Ukraine or a Nato member state. Speaking after a meeting with military and intelligence chiefs, the Ukrainian president said his forces had documented additional contacts between the Kremlin and the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, aimed at persuading him to join new aggressive operations. The plans under consideration include strikes both south and north from Belarus, either against the Chernihiv and Kyiv axis or against one of the neighbouring Nato countries, according to the Ukrainian readout.

Viewed from Stockholm, scepticism prevails over Lukashenko’s willingness to commit his forces. Jörgen Elfving, a Swedish military analyst, noted that the Belarusian leader had almost certainly concluded that the war was “no success story for Putin” and would be reluctant to involve his own army in a conflict that has already exacted a heavy toll on Russia. This assessment resonates with the pattern of Belarusian behaviour since February 2022, when Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to stage the invasion from his territory but stopped short of direct participation. Analysts in London would likely add that any decision to join the fight would expose Lukashenko to severe domestic unrest and further international sanctions, a price he has so far been unwilling to pay.

The warning from Kyiv comes at a moment of heightened military activity. Zelensky also announced that Ukraine is preparing new drone strikes against Russia, while a separate statement from the White House saw President Trump caution that a Russian attack on Kyiv could set back diplomatic efforts. The Ukrainian president directly addressed Lukashenko, stating that Ukraine would “without hesitation” defend itself if the Belarusian leader made “the wrong decision” and backed Russian intentions. The subtext is clear: Ukraine views any further involvement by Belarus as an escalation that would fundamentally alter the military geography of the conflict.

Looking ahead, the strategic calculus for Minsk remains finely balanced. Russia needs Belarusian territory to open a viable northern front against Kyiv, but Lukashenko appears to be weighing the risks of a direct confrontation with Nato. If Moscow’s pressure succeeds, Nato’s eastern flank would face a new threat; if it fails, the Kremlin’s operational options will remain constrained. Zelensky’s public disclosure of the intelligence appears designed both to deter Lukashenko and to alert Western capitals to the danger. The coming weeks will test whether the Belarusian leader can sustain his balancing act or whether he will be drawn into a conflict from which there is no easy exit.