伊朗7月通胀月率大幅回落，政治缓和与食品降价推动改善
伊朗央行数据显示，7月通胀月率从6月的7.4%降至3.6%，主要因政治紧张缓和及海上封锁部分解除，但年通胀仍高达83.9%。
伊朗央行最新数据显示，7月（伊朗历提尔月）通胀月率从6月的7.4%大幅下降至3.6%，为近几个月来最大降幅。同时，伊朗统计中心公布的点对点通胀率为87.9%，而央行数据为83.9%，两者均显示通胀压力依然沉重。
推动通胀月率下行的核心因素是食品价格涨势显著放缓。根据央行报告，食品和饮料类别的月通胀率从6月的8.7%骤降至7月的1.8%，创下14个月新低。分析指出，此前因军事冲突、海上封锁及进口中断导致的供应冲击正在消退，运输成本回落和商品到货增加缓解了短缺恐慌。与此同时，烟草类价格甚至出现环比下跌。
政治环境的改善是通胀降温的关键驱动力。随着伊朗与相关方展开对话，海上封锁部分解除，市场对贸易中断和汇率跳升的担忧减弱，企业调价节奏放缓，消费者恐慌性购买也有所收敛。不过，服务类价格仍保持高位，其点对点通胀从45.7%升至48%，显示出更大黏性，主要受住房、医疗和教育等刚性成本支撑。
尽管7月数据带来喘息，但分析师警告，若8月海上封锁恢复或外部紧张局势再度升级，通胀月率可能重新攀升。下一关注点将是伊朗央行后续货币政策的反应以及地缘政治动态对进口渠道的影响。
| 拉丁美洲媒体 | +0.30 | aligned |
|---|---|---|
| 伊朗及相关媒体 | +0.20 | neutral |
| 撒哈拉以南非洲媒体 | −0.50 | critical |
Brazil's preliminary July inflation hit 0.06%, the lowest since 2023, driven by falling food and gasoline prices. The print came below expectations, pushing future interest rates down, but analysts warn the decline may be temporary due to seasonal factors. Markets respond with cautious optimism.
Iran saw monthly inflation drop to 3.6% in July, aided by eased political tensions and the lifting of a naval blockade. While the figure is encouraging, annual inflation remains high at 83.9%, and experts caution it might rebound. The story is framed as a diplomatic achievement.
Nigeria's headline inflation stood at 15.91% in June, but 19 states recorded over 30%. The national figure masks a deep crisis, and statistical rebasing fails to address structural drivers. The government is faulted for failing to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.