美伊军事冲突重燃通胀担忧，金价承压跌至一周低点
美国对伊朗发动新打击以维持霍尔木兹海峡通航，伊朗反击科威特与巴林，油价上涨令市场重新定价美联储加息路径，黄金现货跌至每盎司4060美元附近。
黄金现货价格周四下跌0.4%，至每盎司4060.46美元，逼近前一交易日创下的7月1日以来最低水平；美国8月黄金期货同步下滑0.3%，报4069.80美元。白银现货跌0.9%至57.77美元，铂金与钯金则分别上涨0.8%。此轮跌势的直接触发因素是美伊军事对抗骤然升级——美军宣布对伊朗实施新打击以确保霍尔木兹海峡航行自由，伊朗随即对科威特和巴林发动攻击，令临时停火协议濒临破裂，国际油价延续涨势。
油价攀升通过通胀预期渠道重塑了利率前景。OANDA高级市场分析师Kelvin Wong指出，支撑金价下行的催化剂是市场对美联储可能在明年一季度进行第二次加息的重新定价。芝商所FedWatch工具显示，交易员预计9月加息概率为68%，2027年1月加息概率达87%。黄金虽被视为通胀对冲工具，但利率走高会显著压制这一无息资产的吸引力。
不同区域市场呈现出分化特征。美国银行以美联储立场更趋鹰派为由，将2026年黄金均价预测下调14%至每盎司4360美元。印度多种商品交易所黄金期货下跌逾1150卢比，至每10克14.5767万卢比。而在伊朗，尽管全球金价走低，国内金币价格却逆势上涨，伊玛米金币升至1.81亿里亚尔，折射出地缘紧张局势下本币贬值对当地贵金属定价的额外推力。
市场注意力正转向即将公布的美联储6月政策会议纪要，投资者试图从中捕捉有关未来利率路径的进一步信号。在美伊临时停火协议根基动摇、霍尔木兹海峡航运安全面临威胁的背景下，能源价格与通胀预期的联动将继续主导贵金属市场的短期走向。
| 伊朗及相关媒体 | −0.60 | critical |
|---|---|---|
| 阿拉伯海湾媒体 | −0.50 | critical |
| 大西洋／英语圈媒体 | −0.20 | neutral |
Iran speaks as a victim of external aggression, highlighting the resilience of its market despite sanctions and pressure.
Presents mixed data on local gold prices to suggest that sanctions are ineffective, using victimhood to justify domestic policies and deflect blame.
Omits mention of Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain that triggered further US strikes, which would undermine the victim narrative.
Gulf states speak as targets of Iranian aggression, demanding security and portraying Iran as the destabilizing force.
By foregrounding Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, the narrative paints Iran as aggressor and legitimizes US military response as defensive.
Downplays the initial US strikes on Iran that preceded the Iranian attacks, omitting context that could justify Iran's actions as retaliation.
The Atlantic observer speaks as an economic analyst, focusing on inflation risks and market movements.
Uses a technical and detached tone to normalize military intervention as a factor in financial calculations, thereby depoliticizing the conflict.
Omits regional perspectives and civilian casualties, reducing the tension to a financial calculus.