美联储维持利率不变但现罕见反对票：通胀阴影下内部分歧公开化
联邦公开市场委员会以9比3的投票结果将基准利率连续第五次维持在3.50%-3.75%区间，三名地区联储主席明确主张加息25个基点，折射出对持续高通胀的焦虑。
美国联邦储备委员会在29日结束的议息会议上决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，这是该利率自去年12月以来连续第五次会议按兵不动。但内部共识出现明显裂痕：克利夫兰联储总裁贝丝·哈马克、明尼阿波利斯联储总裁尼尔·卡什卡里与达拉斯联储总裁洛里·洛根投下反对票，主张立即加息25个基点。
通胀持续高于2%的官方目标已逾五年，近期更因美伊冲突升级、新一轮关税以及人工智能投资带来的需求扩张而面临新的上行压力。能源价格剧烈震荡，布伦特原油一度突破每桶100美元，虽随后回落，但不确定性依然高企。美联储偏好的个人消费支出价格指数在5月出现加速，6月消费物价虽有所回落，但多数官员仍对“通胀暂时论”保持警惕。
新任主席凯文·沃什在会后记者会上释放鹰派信号，称对高通胀“零容忍”，强调“只要本委员会还在，就不存在弹性通胀目标”。但他拒绝就下一次利率行动给出明确指引，并将内部的激烈辩论形容为“一场好的家庭争吵”。与此同时，总统特朗普继续公开施压要求降息，尽管他声称支持沃什，但将利率不变归咎于其他委员的“不良意图”。
决议公布后，标准普尔500指数盘中跌幅收窄，两年期美债收益率下行，美元指数小幅走软。市场定价显示，9月加息概率已升至55%以上。次日将发布的最新PCE通胀数据以及中东局势演变，将成为判断下一次投票天平是否向鹰派倾斜的关键变量。
| 大西洋／英语圈媒体 | −0.20 | neutral |
|---|---|---|
| 欧洲大陆媒体 | −0.30 | critical |
| 拉丁美洲媒体 | 0.00 | neutral |
| 俄罗斯及独联体媒体 | 0.00 | neutral |
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