澳大利亚燃油税减免到期，美伊冲突推高全球油价加剧多国燃料负担
随着澳大利亚16澳分/升的燃油消费税减免于8月3日结束，叠加美伊在霍尔木兹海峡的军事冲突导致布伦特原油逼近90美元，多国成品油价格面临新一轮上涨压力。
澳大利亚能源部长克里斯·鲍恩8月1日确认，政府不会延长3月出台的燃油消费税临时减免措施。该减免在7月已从32澳分减半至16澳分，8月3日完全取消后，每升汽油和柴油的批发成本将直接增加16澳分。据汽车数据公司MotorMouth统计，7月31日堪培拉无铅汽油均价已达205.6澳分/升，达尔文204.4澳分，霍巴特200.5澳分，所有首府城市均超过190澳分。若全额转嫁，全国汽油价格将普遍突破2澳元，柴油则可能从墨尔本242.7澳分、堪培拉244.4澳分等高位进一步攀升至250澳分以上。
本轮油价上行的直接推手是中东地缘冲突的骤然升级。自7月中旬美国恢复对伊朗的打击以来，霍尔木兹海峡几乎完全关闭，伊朗更在7月31日袭击了两艘由美国护航的油轮。全球基准布伦特原油从7月2日的约70美元/桶升至7月31日的近90美元，单月涨幅接近24%。阿格斯传媒高级分析师汤姆·伍德洛克指出，加油站通常需要四天以上才能将批发成本变动传导至终端售价，而零售商已在7月中旬开始将更高的进口成本转嫁给消费者。
多国市场已感受到压力。在意大利，政府7月27日批准的17欧分/升柴油消费税削减措施仅三天后便部分失效：7月31日普通路网柴油自助价从2.066欧元升至2.080欧元，高速公路则从2.165欧元涨至2.175欧元。消费者协会计算，实际优惠已缩水至约10.5欧分。阿根廷政府则于8月1日通过第693号法令，将汽油和柴油的液体燃料税及二氧化碳税分别上调约0.5%和0.75%，但同时将2024年及2025年累计未调部分再度推迟至9月1日执行，以“通过可持续的财政路径继续刺激经济增长”。
AMP首席经济学家沙恩·奥利弗在报告中指出，澳大利亚燃油税减免的终结可能将汽油价格推高至2.10澳元/升，并使家庭每周燃油支出增加约20澳元，进而推升整体通胀。鲍恩表示，澳大利亚目前持有43天汽油、39天柴油和34天航空煤油库存，未来一个月将有44艘油轮运送31亿升燃料到港，订单已锁定至10月且未出现取消。意大利政府则将在8月4日的内阁会议上决定是否延长柴油消费税削减，并可能引入针对低收入家庭的补贴。
| 拉丁美洲媒体 | 0.00 | neutral |
|---|---|---|
| 印度及南亚媒体 | +0.30 | aligned |
| 大西洋／英语圈媒体 | −0.20 | neutral |
| 欧洲大陆媒体 | −0.50 | critical |
Latin American fiscal authorities manage fuel prices through administrative measures, avoiding the pass-through of global increases.
By presenting price variations as routine technical decisions (taxes, freezes), the impact of the global conflict is depoliticized and the situation is normalized.
The direct link to the Middle East conflict as the main cause of the rise is omitted, focusing instead on domestic measures.
The Indian government shields consumers from global price spikes through ethanol blending, proving policy success.
By citing a counterfactual (what petrol would have cost without ethanol), the government creates a narrative of effective intervention, deflecting criticism.
Leaves out the fact that ethanol blending has limits and that global prices still exert pressure; also omits that the government still faces pressure to control prices.
The Australian government ends fuel excise relief, causing petrol prices to surge above $2 per litre.
By framing the price increase as a direct consequence of a government decision (ending the excise cut), the government is positioned as responsible for the burden.
Omits that the excise relief was a temporary measure introduced during a previous spike and that global oil prices also contribute; focuses solely on the ending of the discount.
The Italian government fails to curb fuel prices despite cutting excise taxes, as increases continue due to the Middle East war.
The narrative emphasizes the brief effect of the tax cut, contrasting a domestic measure against an uncontrollable global force, eroding confidence in government action.
Omits that the tax cut was partial and could have been more effective if combined with other measures; focuses on failure without considering the emergency context.