NATO’s 32 member states convene in Ankara on 7–8 July for a summit dominated by disputes over defence spending targets, transatlantic strains, and Turkey’s effort to position itself as an indispensable industrial and diplomatic hub. The gathering follows the 2025 Hague summit, where allies agreed to raise defence expenditure to 5 percent of GDP by 2035, split between 3.5 percent for core military capabilities and 1.5 percent for security-related infrastructure. One year on, according to NATO officials, several members—including Spain, Czechia, Hungary, Slovenia and the United Kingdom—have made little progress toward even the earlier 2 percent benchmark, and Spain has publicly refused to commit to the 5 percent goal. Secretary General Mark Rutte has said he will press for a “credible path” to the target, while also highlighting that European and Canadian arms orders from the United States now total $300 billion over the next two years, sustaining an estimated 195,000 American jobs—a framing that, viewed from Brussels, is designed to reinforce Washington’s commitment to the alliance.

A parallel dispute concerns military aid to Ukraine. A 2025 proposal by Rutte for allies to allocate 0.25 percent of GDP to such assistance was rejected by Canada, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, though NATO members continue to supply defence, financial and humanitarian support. The summit is not expected to produce a binding Ukraine funding mechanism, but officials in several European capitals indicate that bilateral pledges will be announced on the margins. The unresolved spending and aid questions feed into broader anxiety over President Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw from NATO or reduce US troop levels; Trump has confirmed his attendance, stating he would not have gone “except for the fact that it was being held in Turkey by President Erdogan.”

Turkey’s government is using the summit to accelerate its defence-industry ambitions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aims to push the country into the top ten of global arms exporters, and a high-level defence forum will run alongside the leaders’ meeting. German officials have signalled interest: the defence ministry sent a delegation to an Istanbul arms fair, and analysts in Berlin note that Turkish firms could become suppliers of sensors, antennas and drone components for European manufacturers facing production bottlenecks. Ankara also presents itself as a mediator between Washington and estranged European allies, a role that, according to Turkish security analysts, has been strengthened by the transatlantic rift. At the same time, Turkish authorities have detained more than 200 people, denied accreditation to dozens of independent journalists, and maintained a legal crackdown on the opposition Republican People’s Party, including the jailing of Istanbul’s mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu. Western diplomats involved in summit planning say no public criticism of these measures is expected, a silence that, according to former US ambassador David Satterfield, risks ignoring NATO’s founding principles of democracy and rule of law.

The summit will test whether the alliance can narrow the gap between Washington and European capitals on burden-sharing while managing Turkey’s increasingly autonomous posture. Bilateral arms deals and joint production agreements are likely to be announced, and the host nation will showcase its latest military technology. The formal agenda includes sessions on defence investment, industrial innovation and Ukraine, but the outcome will be measured by whether allies can agree on a timeline for meeting the 5 percent target and by the tone Trump adopts toward partners who have yet to meet existing commitments. The next milestone is the summit’s final communiqué, expected on 8 July.