Scientists from the World Weather Attribution initiative have calculated that anthropogenic climate change made the extreme fire conditions driving devastating wildfires in Spain and France far more probable. In an analysis released while the fires were still burning, researchers led by Friederike Otto of Imperial College London found that the hot, dry weather responsible for the record blazes in central Spain is now at least 20 times more likely than in a world without warming. For southwestern France, the study concluded that the same conditions are at least twice as likely. The report, which relied on established peer-reviewed methods but was not itself peer-reviewed, compared current fire-weather severity with historical measurements and with a simulated climate 1.4°C cooler.

The mechanism linking the fires to global warming is clear: higher average temperatures dry out vegetation more quickly, turning landscapes into tinder. In Spain, an unusually wet January spurred dense plant growth, followed by severe spring drought — a combination that created abundant fuel. Otto noted that land abandonment in Spain has added to the problem, leaving unmanaged vegetation to desiccate. In France’s Bordeaux region, thick pine forests ignited easily once conditions turned extreme. The analysis is consistent with a broader trend: a separate study published on the same day found that the number of days with extreme fire-weather conditions in southern Europe has more than doubled compared with previous decades.

The human and material toll has been severe. Across Spain and France, more than 300,000 people have been forced from their homes this summer, according to media reports. Spanish authorities recorded nearly 180,000 hectares of land burned by the end of July — roughly six times the area lost in the same period of 2025, according to the Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition. In France, firefighters battled flames threatening the city of Bordeaux. The European Forest Fire Information System reported that by late July, fires had consumed more than 434,000 hectares across the European Union, making this season one of the most destructive on record.

The immediate outlook offers little relief. Rubén del Campo, a spokesman for Spain’s state meteorological agency AEMET, warned that the wildfire threat is expected to persist throughout August as high temperatures and dry conditions continue to support large-scale blazes. Europe has warmed by roughly 2.5°C since pre-industrial times — double the global average — a trend that increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and fire seasons. “We are seeing this pattern again and again across Europe: heatwaves, droughts and wildfires feeding each other,” said María Alcázar Castilla, deputy regional director for Europe at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.