A year after Friedrich Merz became chancellor in an unprecedented second-round vote, his grand coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats is haemorrhaging support at a rate that makes its unloved predecessor look almost popular. Polls this week put approval for the government at a new low, with even CDU loyalists turning away. Viewed from Berlin, the numbers are not merely bad; they are historically damning for a leader who promised competence and direction.

The real crisis, however, lies in the coalition’s inability to govern. The chancellor himself admitted in an interview that he does not know whether the partnership can succeed, a confession that has deepened the impression of drift. Within the CDU, strategists are already gaming out exit scenarios, while the SPD publicly questions whether Merz is fit to lead.

One recent coalition crisis meeting reportedly saw Merz propose abolishing the May Day holiday to boost productivity—a suggestion that the SPD took as a provocation rather than a policy idea. This pattern of miscommunication extends far beyond domestic squabbles. When Merz criticised US policy during a school visit, President Trump responded by announcing a partial withdrawal of American troops from Germany.

Analysts in Zurich note that the chancellor appears oblivious to how his words reverberate in the digital age, a failing that critics describe as almost pre-modern in its cluelessness. Meanwhile, the fallout from such blunders is visible on the streets. In central Berlin, the sight of homeless encampments within sight of the chancellery underscores the gap between rhetoric and reality.

The government’s tight fiscal framework through 2030, built on new borrowing, places immense pressure on the welfare state at a time when voters want reassurance. From Madrid, observers note that the far-right AfD is the principal beneficiary of this paralysis. With Merz now submitting himself to a televised crisis interview, the hope is that a reset might still be possible.

But as the coalition’s internal trust erodes and the public’s patience expires, the more plausible scenario is that Germany drifts toward an early election—a prospect that nobody in the current government wants, yet nobody seems able to prevent.