The most violent day since the 17 April ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah shattered southern Lebanon on Sunday, as Israeli air strikes killed at least 14 people and wounded 37, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Among the dead were two children and two women. The Israeli military simultaneously ordered residents of seven villages north of the Litani River to evacuate immediately, extending its declared buffer zone and signalling that a truce brokered in Washington barely ten days earlier is unravelling with dangerous speed.

The ceasefire, extended for three weeks only the previous Thursday after talks between envoys in the US capital, had reduced but never fully halted cross-border fire. Hezbollah opened the front on 2 March, following the coordinated US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, pulling Lebanon into a regional war that has killed more than 2,500 people there. Sunday’s toll confirmed that incremental violations are now metastasising into a new phase of sustained operations.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Hezbollah was “disintegrating” the truce and ordered the military to “vigorously attack” the group’s positions. Israel said it had intercepted three drones launched from Lebanese territory and reported the death of one soldier. Hezbollah, broadcasting on its Al-Manar television, denied any violation and instead accused Israel of exploiting the ceasefire to prolong its occupation of Lebanese land and strike civilian areas. The group vowed that “continued violations by the enemy” would be met with “resistance to protect its land and people”.

Viewed from Washington, President Donald Trump’s remark that the United States is “in no hurry” to conclude a deal with Iran appears to give Israel considerable operational latitude, even as Pakistani diplomats attempt to revive peace talks. Analysts in Moscow note that the spiralling accusations are eroding any foundation for good-faith mediation, a concern that extends to the Kremlin’s own equities in Syria, where Hezbollah remains embedded. Inside Lebanon, Christian Kataeb party leader Samy Gemayel warned that neither sustained Israeli occupation nor Hezbollah’s armed status can deliver peace — a cry of exasperation from a population trapped between an emboldened military campaign and a dug-in militia. Israeli public opinion, meanwhile, reflects growing unease: polls reported in Buenos Aires show 66 per cent of Israelis dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s handling of the crisis.

The evacuation orders north of the Litani signal that Israel may be preparing for expanded operations, testing the ceasefire’s last threads. With Hezbollah showing no appetite for disarmament and Israel insisting on degrading the group’s capabilities, the conflict’s centre of gravity threatens to shift further north, displacing more civilians and deepening the humanitarian emergency. Diplomatically, a disengaged Washington and an Iran in leadership transition leave few credible mediators. The near-certain trajectory, European and regional analysts caution, is a grinding, low-intensity conflict punctuated by escalations like Sunday’s strikes — a dynamic that will continue to bleed Lebanon and keep the broader Middle East on the edge of a wider conflagration.