A year after taking office, Friedrich Merz has become the least popular chancellor in the history of the Federal Republic, with approval ratings sinking to just 15 per cent. The man who promised a decisive break from the Scholz era now presides over a grand coalition that, viewed from Berlin, appears paralysed by mutual distrust. Merz himself has publicly warned against dreams of early elections, declaring that a minority government is “not an option” — a remark that betrays the fragility of his position rather than its strength.

The domestic malaise is epitomised by the much-vaunted tankrabatt, a tax cut on fuel introduced on 1 May. The Ifo Institute’s tracker, comparing German pump prices with those in France, confirms that oil companies are passing on only about half of the intended 17-cent reduction. The chancellor himself admitted the measure works only “so leidlich” — so-so. For a government that came to power vowing to ease the cost-of-living crisis, such a blunt admission fuels public disillusionment.

Meanwhile, the promised migration turnaround is stalling. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has rescinded the previous government’s entry order and touts 33,000 pushbacks at the border. Yet net arrivals remain high, equivalent to a large city each year, while deportations have fallen. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland profits most from the perceived gap between rhetoric and results. Analysts in London note that the migration issue alone could determine the coalition’s survival if asylum numbers rise again this summer.

On foreign policy, Merz’s early reputation as an “Aussenkanzler” has soured. His blunt public criticism of Washington over Iran has been deemed counterproductive even by domestic commentators, who argue a chancellor should not behave like an editorialist. Relations with Paris remain strained: Emmanuel Macron’s hopes for a Franco-German renaissance have evaporated amid disagreements over defence financing and EU reform. The one bright spot is an unsolicited Israeli offer to supply kerosene to Germany, a sign of deepening energy cooperation triggered by the Hormuz crisis.

Looking ahead, the greatest threat to Merz may be his own party. As the CDU bleeds support, its grassroots grows restless, and figures like Jens Spahn — re-elected as parliamentary leader — could position themselves as alternatives. The SPD, too, is drifting away, fearful of being crushed by an unpopular coalition. The irony, as observers in Zurich point out, is that the same fear of collapse that paralyses reform may also be the only force holding the government together. Merz has one year to turn the tide, or risk becoming a footnote in Germany’s post-Merkel era.