A new study by five Russian artificial-intelligence researchers has calculated that the median human lifespan would reach 146 to 194 years in an ideal scenario where every major cause of ageing except the accumulation of DNA mutations is removed. The work, published in the journal NPJ Ageing, uses an incremental modelling framework to simulate how organs deteriorate as somatic mutations build up over time. Under these theoretical conditions, the predicted median lifespan is roughly double the current global average of 79 years.

According to the study, the brain and heart are particularly vulnerable because many of their critical cells are irreplaceable and rarely divide after birth, making them a bottleneck for extreme longevity. The liver, by contrast, constantly replaces worn-out cells and is less affected. When the researchers combined organ-specific simulations into a single model, they found that mutation-driven ageing alone would cap median survival at 146 to 194 years. The authors note that this approximate two-fold gap indicates that other hallmarks of ageing—such as chronic inflammation and mitochondrial dysfunction—likely contribute at least as much to limiting lifespan as somatic mutations do.

The findings challenge parts of the contemporary longevity movement, which the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung describes as encompassing tech billionaires, biohackers and investors who flirt with the idea of immortality. British bioinformatician Aubrey de Grey has argued that the first person to live to 1,000 is already alive. The Russian model, however, suggests a far lower ceiling. The researchers caution that their conclusions depend strongly on assumptions about how organs interact and fail, and they stress that the study is a theoretical exercise, not an experimental demonstration.

Viewed from a scientific perspective, the paper is presented as a first step towards dissecting ageing into quantifiable mechanistic components. The authors write that incorporating other major ageing factors could eventually lead to a comprehensive, mechanistic theory of ageing. The study does not offer a timeline for anti-ageing interventions, and its predictions remain contingent on future medical advances that can eliminate all reversible aspects of ageing.