Iran’s capital is gripped by a paradox that is unsettling both buyers and analysts. Online property platforms have seen a surge in listings, with asking prices in some districts leaping by 40 to 100 percent since late last year. Yet official transaction data tells a different story: the number of actual sales has not risen. Field investigations suggest that many of these advertisements are not genuine offers to sell but tactical tools to gauge prices and stoke inflationary expectations. The platforms, which should connect sellers with buyers, have in some cases become showcases for price manipulation, a development that hits genuine home-seekers hardest.

Viewed from Moscow, a similar disconnect between prices and reality has drawn a rare, blunt admission from inside the central bank. Alexander Danilov, director of the bank’s department for banking regulation and analytics, told a conference that he was “in shock” at apartment prices in the capital. “I don’t know how much you need to earn to buy this,” he said. In February, researchers calculated that buying a one-bedroom flat on Moscow’s secondary market would require 13 years of salary if one saved an entire paycheck. The statement from a senior regulator underscored the depth of the affordability crisis, even as state mortgage programmes are being phased out and market-rate lending slowly takes their place.

In Tehran, the immediate outlook offers little comfort. Davoud Biginejad, first vice-president of the Tehran Real Estate Consultants Union, has warned that the summer rental season could see a surge in prices. He argues that if rival asset classes such as gold and foreign exchange lose momentum, capital will flow back into housing, drawing in both genuine buyers and speculators. Such a shift would add further pressure to a market already distorted by a mismatch between seller ambition and buyer capacity.

Analysts in both countries note that the current dynamics reflect deeper economic uncertainties. In Iran, high inflation and currency depreciation have made housing a perceived safe haven, while in Russia, the post-pandemic hangover and adjustments to subsidised mortgage schemes leave prices in limbo. The central bank in Moscow is watching closely, particularly the growing use of instalment plans by developers, and is awaiting legislation to regulate such deals. For now, sellers in both capitals are testing the upper limits of what the market will bear, while buyers – and, in Russia’s case, at least one senior regulator – can only marvel at the numbers.