The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations has warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks precipitating a systemic agrifood shock, with severe consequences for global food prices within the next six to twelve months. In a stark assessment, the agency noted that the disruption is not merely a temporary shipping problem but a structural crisis that demands urgent and coordinated intervention. It recommended establishing alternative trade routes, managing export restrictions, safeguarding humanitarian aid flows, and building strategic reserves to absorb rising transport costs, stressing that the window for preventive action is narrowing rapidly.

Viewed from the Gulf, the warning carries particular weight: the region is a major hub for fertiliser production, and under normal circumstances a third of the world’s maritime trade in agricultural compounds – including ammonia, urea, and sulphur – passes through the strait. India, the world’s most populous country and among the most exposed, has already taken drastic steps. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, visiting Italy this week, has asked the population to halve their use of chemical fertilisers, an extreme measure that underscores the depth of the potential crisis. Analysts in New Delhi note that dependence on Gulf fertiliser leaves Indian agriculture acutely vulnerable to supply interruptions.

In Europe, the alarm follows an earlier energy shock triggered by the same chokepoint. The sequential effects – from energy disruption to fertiliser shortages, reduced seed availability, lower harvests, and finally food inflation – form a cascade that the FAO’s chief economist, Maximo Torero, has described as a foreseeable pattern. The organisation warns that decisions being taken now by farmers and governments on fertiliser use, imports, and financing will determine whether the world faces a severe food price crisis within a year. Yet geopolitical tensions around the strait complicate any swift resolution, and the recommended measures require a level of international cooperation that currently appears fragile. The question, analysts in London observe, is whether the global community can act before the window closes entirely.