The United States and Mexico took the extraordinary step of opening formal talks on the future of the T-MEC trade agreement without Canada at the table, marking an unmistakable fracture in the trilateral framework that has governed North American commerce for a generation. The first of three rounds convened in Mexico City on 28 May, led by Jeffrey Goettman, deputy to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and focused on economic security, rules of origin for key industrial goods, agriculture, and conditions of competition. Greer himself did not join the opening session but later met President Claudia Sheinbaum to discuss possible deals on steel, aluminium and automobiles — a sign that the most sensitive files were being handled at political level.

From Mexico City, officials projected methodical confidence. Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard announced a second round in Washington on 16-17 June and a third in Mexico on 20 July, confirming that the review would extend beyond the treaty's nominal 1 July deadline. In a statement, the US Trade Representative’s office described the discussions as “substantive” but offered no timeline for conclusion. The sequencing — bilateral first, with Canada’s role undefined — reflects what analysts in London describe as a deliberate US stratagem to extract concessions from Mexico before turning to Ottawa, which remains locked in a dispute with Washington over tariff policy and dairy market access.

Viewed from Washington, the talks unfold against a backdrop of more muscular trade enforcement. Greer signalled that the administration intended to continue applying tariffs on countries with “elevated and persistent trade deficits”, including Mexico and Canada, even as it negotiates. The USTR openly acknowledged “significant differences” with Ottawa, effectively confirming that the traditional unified three-party architecture has been suspended. Meanwhile, a separate US delegation is heading to New Delhi from 1-4 June for a parallel bilateral trade negotiation — an indication, European trade analysts note, that the Trump administration is executing a global strategy of bilateral, tariff-linked deals designed to reshape supply chains on its own terms.

For Mexico, the calculation is finely balanced. Sheinbaum’s government has enlisted Mexican and US business leaders to support the process, hoping to insulate the vital manufacturing corridor from political volatility. Yet the US demand for stricter rules of origin — especially in steel and autos — threatens to unravel the integrated production networks that are the T-MEC’s chief achievement. From Ottawa, silence speaks volumes; Canadian officials have not joined the rounds, and there is no timetable for their inclusion. The extension of the review beyond July effectively buys time, but it also prolongs uncertainty for investors who had assumed the treaty’s dispute-resolution mechanisms would be updated by midsummer. The coming weeks will test whether North American trade diplomacy can still function as a triangle, or whether it has entered a more transactional, hub-and-spoke era.