India’s weather office has forecast that monsoon rainfall in July will reach only 94% of the long-period average, a projection that follows a June in which precipitation fell 39% below normal—the fifth-driest June since 1901. The deficit has already disrupted kharif sowing, with government data showing a 23% decline in planted area compared with the same period last year. The July outlook, released on 30 June, indicates that most of the country will receive below-normal rain, though parts of the northwest, northeast, east-central and eastern peninsular regions may see normal to above-normal totals.

The weakening of the monsoon is being driven by a strengthening El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have risen to about 0.7°C above the long-term mean, crossing the threshold for El Niño conditions. Global forecast models suggest the event will intensify through the boreal autumn, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assigning a 63% probability of a “very strong” episode—defined by anomalies of 2.0°C or more—between November 2026 and January 2027. El Niño typically weakens the monsoon circulation by reducing the temperature contrast between land and ocean, suppressing cloud formation and rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.

Viewed from New Delhi, the immediate concern is the impact on agriculture, reservoir storage and rural demand in an economy where over half of net sown area relies on rain. The Reserve Bank of India has flagged upside risks to inflation from monsoon uncertainty, even as it projects 6.6% GDP growth for the fiscal year. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s meteorology agency (BMKG) has warned that El Niño has entered a strong phase with a 98% probability, and that rainfall in southern regions—including Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and southern Sumatra—is likely to fall below normal during the July–October dry season. Hong Kong’s Observatory has separately cautioned that the combination of El Niño and background global warming could push temperatures to record highs in the territory this year and next.

Near-term relief may come from a southward shift of the monsoon trough, which satellite imagery shows stretching nearly 1,500 km from the Bay of Bengal to Jammu and Kashmir. The India Meteorological Department expects the trough’s movement to trigger widespread thunderstorms and advance the monsoon into Delhi and other parts of north India between 1 and 4 July. Further ahead, the possible development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season could partially offset El Niño’s influence, but the critical window for kharif sowing and water-resource replenishment will be the performance of the monsoon in July and August, before El Niño reaches its expected peak.