Japan’s Ministry of Defence released its 2026 white paper on Tuesday, describing a security landscape around the archipelago that is “the most severe since World War Two” and cautioning that a Ukraine-like crisis could erupt in the Indo-Pacific. In a preface to the roughly 600-page document, Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi wrote that it is “extremely important for Japan to further strengthen and transform its defence capabilities with a greater sense of urgency and crisis than ever before.” The report identifies China’s military build-up and its intensified activities near Japanese territory and Taiwan as “the greatest strategic challenge” facing the country, while reiterating that North Korea’s missile programmes represent an “increasingly serious and pressing threat.”

The white paper catalogues a series of incidents that, viewed from Tokyo, illustrate a deteriorating operational environment. It notes that Chinese and Russian bombers flew near Japan’s southern islands in December 2025, prompting fighter jet scrambles, and that Chinese aircraft locked fire-control radars onto Japanese planes during carrier drills in the same period. The simultaneous deployment of two Chinese aircraft carriers near Iwo Jima in June 2025 is cited as evidence that Beijing is seeking to project power into distant maritime domains. The document also expresses alarm over deepening military cooperation between China and Russia, as well as between Pyongyang and Moscow, warning that North Korea’s access to Russian technology could enhance its medium- and long-term military capabilities.

A notable shift in the 2026 edition is the explicit linkage of defence spending to economic growth. The paper “stresses that investment in defence benefits the wider economy and people’s lives,” according to a ministry presentation, a message that aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s use of strategic state expenditure to stimulate the economy. The argument is reinforced by the report’s cover, which replaces traditional military imagery with an anime-style illustration of a smiling family in a futuristic cityscape. The white paper also emphasises the need to adapt to “new ways of warfare” observed in Ukraine and the Middle East, prioritising the rapid development of domestically produced combat drones and artificial intelligence to compensate for a shrinking pool of service members. It notes that the government has already selected four companies for a fast-track drone programme, with naval testing scheduled for early August.

Japan has been assembling a package of tax increases, spending reforms and one-off revenues to finance its largest military expansion since the war, pushing defence-related expenditure to approximately two per cent of gross domestic product. The white paper points to a revision of defence equipment export rules in April, which scrapped previous restrictions and is intended to enable joint production and technology sharing with allies. The publication arrives as the Takaichi administration prepares a new National Security Strategy that is widely expected to recommend further increases in military spending, primarily to strengthen deterrence against China amid persistent friction over Taiwan. Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have remained elevated since the prime minister said in November that a Chinese attack on the self-ruled island could justify the deployment of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.