The United States and Iran carried out a second round of retaliatory strikes over the weekend, deepening the crisis over the Strait of Hormuz and placing the fledgling ceasefire in acute jeopardy. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said American aircraft targeted surveillance infrastructure, air defence sites, and drone storage facilities in southern Iran early on Sunday, after a Panama-flagged tanker, the Kiku, was hit by an Iranian one-way attack drone while transiting a navigation route near Oman. Within hours, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded with ballistic missiles and drones against what it described as eight US military facilities at the Ali al-Salem base in Kuwait and the Fifth Fleet’s headquarters in Bahrain. Kuwaiti air defences intercepted two ballistic missiles, and Bahrain reported damage to a residential building but no fatalities. US officials confirmed the Iranian strikes but said they caused no American casualties or significant damage.

The exchange was the latest in a cycle of escalation that both sides attribute to violations of the interim agreement. In Washington, President Donald Trump warned on social media that the US could be “forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started”, adding that “the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist” if provoked further. CENTCOM asserted that Iran had been given a chance to honour the ceasefire but chose not to. Tehran’s response was diametrically opposed: the foreign ministry condemned the US strikes as a “flagrant violation” of the United Nations Charter and the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding, while the IRGC declared that any future aggression, even against low-value targets, would be met with a “crushing response”. Crucially, the Guards asserted that under the agreement, control of vessel traffic through Hormuz rests with Tehran, and that ships using unauthorised corridors would henceforth be dealt with more severely, a stance that cuts to the heart of the dispute.

Gulf states directly affected by the spillover condemned the attacks on their soil. Bahrain’s foreign ministry called them “a systematic pattern of repeated aggression against the sovereignty of the kingdom” and demanded an emergency session of the UN Security Council. Kuwait denounced the “hostile” fire and placed its armed forces on high alert. The tit-for-tat flared as a Western-led maritime body announced the expansion of a shipping lane along the Omani coast to accommodate bi-directional traffic, a move Iran sees as a direct challenge to its claim of exclusive policing over the strait. The unresolved tension over Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world’s crude and LNG once flowed — is also injecting instability into the broader peace framework, which links a halt to fighting in Lebanon to the US-Iran deal. Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, rejected a nascent Israel-Lebanon accord on Saturday, calling it “null and void”, while Israeli forces pressed strikes in the south.

The 14-point Memorandum of Understanding, signed electronically on June 17 after Pakistani and Qatari mediation, was intended to buy 60 days for a comprehensive agreement addressing not only maritime security but also Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and the withdrawal of forces. Yet the text left crucial details ambiguous: it pledges “safe passage” for commercial vessels without charge, but does not specify who authorises the transit corridors or whether Iran may impose its own rules. Analysts in London suggest that Tehran is pursuing “calibrated, low-level coercive activity” to maximise leverage without provoking a full-scale return to the war that erupted in late February. From Washington’s vantage point, the approaching November midterm elections create pressure for a rapid diplomatic win, but officials there insist they will not accept Iranian control of the waterway.

The diplomatic track, though battered, is not yet extinguished. A fresh round of negotiations is reportedly scheduled for July in Doha, focusing on the release of frozen Iranian assets, with Pakistan set to host subsequent talks on the nuclear file. But the preconditions for those sessions are now in doubt: Iran’s parliamentarians have publicly demanded that any deal exclude nuclear concessions and guarantee Iranian control over Hormuz, while the Biden administration faces calls from Gulf allies for a robust posture. The UN Security Council is expected to convene at Bahrain’s request, but without consensus among veto-wielding members, its response may be limited to calls for restraint. For now, the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint and the viability of the interim truce appears to hinge on whether the two sides can agree on the meaning of key clauses — or whether the region will slide back into open conflict.